Conflict risks in the Indo-Pacific are intensifying, and addressing them before they escalate is central to Australia’s security.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong has elevated conflict prevention as a priority in Australian foreign policy. We know that when policymakers currently speak of conflict prevention, they are usually focused on the most catastrophic risks, such as confrontation between China and the United States. This is understandable.
Yet conflict risks within states—fragility, unrest, and governance pressures—also matter. They are destabilising in their own right, as well as deeply intertwined with geostrategic competition.
Effective prevention for Australia must therefore span the full spectrum of risks: from interstate confrontation to the more subtle but equally dangerous drivers of instability within states. That requires an explicit, integrated approach that links deterrence, diplomacy, and development.
This paper sketches a three-pillar framework that could form an ‘Australian Model’ of conflict prevention. Within this framework, we map out options to do more to address the risks present within states throughout the region, including through Australia’s development assistance efforts.
It’s time to bring ambition and structure to the Government’s new priority and ensure Australia’s approach is fit for the challenges ahead.
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