The Australian Government will soon announce a new emissions reduction target for 2035. It’s an important moment for Australia. Coinciding with the release of the government’s first-ever climate risk assessment, the recent Pacific Islands Forum, and a landmark International Court of Justice ruling, the announcement will be closely watched—especially by Pacific neighbours—as a measure of how Australia intends to approach the climate crisis.
For some, Australia is yet to take the threat of climate change seriously, calling for cuts of 65–75% below 2005 levels. Others point to progress: a legislated 2050 net zero target, falling per capita emissions, and a doubling of renewable electricity in the past six years. Still, others highlight inconsistencies, such as the expansion of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project to 2070.
Responding to the climate risk assessment on Monday, Australia’s Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen, said it was “an honest warning of the cost of failing to act”. With so much on the line, we asked regional and subject matter experts, “What will it take for the region to believe Australia is serious about climate action?”
Australia is on the verge of securing its bid to co-host the 2026 UN Climate Change Conference (COP) alongside Pacific Island nations—a diplomatic milestone backed by the Pacific Islands bloc, as agreed at the Pacific Island Forum Foreign Ministers’ meeting on 14 August. With the vote set for December in Brazil, Australia’s success appears all but guaranteed. Yet the true test lies not in winning the bid, but in delivering meaningful climate action to guarantee the security of our Pacific communities.
To honour its co-hosting role and to lend meaning to the participation of the Pacific Island nations, Australia must move beyond symbolism. Key actions include:
The 2026 COP must not be a repeat of the UNSC experience in 2012—where Australia relied on Pacific support, promised to elevate climate change onto the global agenda, but failed to deliver on its word. It must be a turning point—where Australia shifts from diplomatic ambition to climate leadership. The Pacific people and those communities whose survival is on the line will be watching. The world will be listening. And history will judge whether Australia, in partnership with the Pacific nations, rose to meet the moment.
His Excellency Anote Tong, served as President of Kiribati from 2003 to 2015, during which he became a leading global voice on the human and environmental impacts of climate change. As both Head of State and Foreign Minister, he championed the rights of low-lying island nations, highlighting how countries like Kiribati—despite contributing the least to global emissions—face the most severe consequences. His leadership included the creation of one of the world’s largest marine reserves and the promotion of "migration with dignity" in response to rising sea levels. At the Lab, we love Anote’s continued international advocacy for climate justice and sustainable development.
The competing bids to host COP31 have been accurately described as coming from two petrostates, Australia and Türkiye. Australia remains one of the highest per capita carbon emitters in the world. Meanwhile, global temperatures are rapidly approaching the key threshold of 1.5 degrees of warming above preindustrial levels. Breaching this temperature target brings a greater risk of catastrophic extremes and climate tipping points, and impacts ecosystems, biodiversity, food, water and human security.
For the region to believe Australia is serious about climate action, we have to be serious about climate action. First steps?
Sophie is a sustainability and environment specialist and someone we are lucky to call our Strategic Advisor here at the Lab. Formerly the ACT Commissioner for Sustainability and the Environment, she has published over 50 research articles on climate change and variability through her work at the University of New South Wales, University of Melbourne, and Australian National University. In 2014 she was awarded an Australian Research Council DECRA Fellowship to study changes in rainfall extremes, and between 2018‑21 she served as lead author on the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. Her contributions have been recognised with honours such as ACT Scientist of the Year (2019). At the Lab, we love Sophie’s commitment to elevating young people's voices in climate debates and leadership in climate research, policy and advocacy.
To earn the region’s trust, Australia must show genuine ambition and bold leadership on climate change.
As a middle power, and still a largely coal-dependent nation, any action Australia takes to meaningfully reduce its dependencies on fossil fuels will set an example and clear message for other coal-dependent nations— while emissions reductions may be costly, climate inaction is costlier still.
Australia demonstrates some ambition to lead in on the world stage. If Australia and the Pacific co-host COP31, for example, it will be an important moment for to Australia to prove its potential for climate leadership.
However, leadership on climate action must be more than rhetoric. If Australia wants to really lead, it should be a global advocate for its region’s survival, commit to delivering on its promises to the region, and follow through on innovative policy solutions.
Australia can champion global responsibility by investing significantly in the Loss and Damage Fund (a COP27 initiative that provides financial assistance for developing countries burdened by climate impacts), and encouraging other industrialised and fossil fuel-exporting nations to do the same.
It should also play a key role addressing the international and domestic frameworks for the movement and protection of climate-affected peoples, especially in the Pacific. This is something Australia has already pioneered in the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union. We should expect—and demand— more of this policy innovation and realism as climate impacts worsen in coming decades.
Australia has long demonstrated inconsistency in its climate policies. But, Australia can shift its reputation from laggard to leader. If it demonstrates meaningful action, it will be seen not merely as a neighbour, but as a true member of the Pacific family—one that prioritises collective wellbeing over narrow economic interests.
'Alopi is the Director for the Centre for Social Justice and Advocacy Leadership. He brings nearly two decades of experience across Australia’s aid, foreign policy, and economic diplomacy sectors, including senior roles in the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), where he most recently led the Global Education and Scholarships Section overseeing the Australia Awards. His career has also included advisory roles to the Minister for the Pacific, work on Australia’s engagement with Asia, and earlier contributions in the university sector and with First Nations communities in northern Australia. At the Lab, we love ‘Alopi’s dedication to bridging global policy with grassroots impact.
